1. Field of the Invention
This invention relates to a computer system for a self administered assessment of the risk of an event, and more specifically, to a computer system and method for assessing the risk of an event based on responses to questions posed to a user through an interactive self administered risk assessment computer program.
2. Description of the Prior Art
The means to administer a risk assessment have not kept pace with the increasingly complex risk assessment rules that are the result of extensive research and analysis. Particularly in the area of health, data that is collected with the goal of understanding the factors associated with a medical condition, from expensive well-planned epidemiological research studies, may have been analyzed by means of logistic regression, regression trees, discriminant analyses, or other sophisticated statistical methodologies, that result in extremely complicated rules to assess risk. Such rules are too complex to be readily applied. This invention provides a means to allow even an unsophisticated user to perform highly complex risk assessments in a casual though error-free manner.
It is clear that such a tool is needed. For instance, the changing face of health care is, among other things, forcing people to take more responsibility for their own health, and assessing personal risk is an important facet. We see more instances of simple health assessments printed in newspapers, and magazines. By necessity these personal risk assessments must be easy for the reader to apply, since usage rates for complex assessments are low, and error rates are high. The typical personal assessment may require answering a simple set of questions, adding up a point total, and then assessing risk according to the range in which the point total falls. Such simple assessments are about at the level of complexity that can be typically handled without undue chance of error. The problem with such simple assessments is that they are by necessity simplifications from more detailed studies, and subsequently lack the precision of the studies from which they are taken. The tradeoff is that to be usable, they have to be simplified. The main object of the current invention is to provide a useable computer tool that can administer even the most sophisticated risk assessments.
Even sophisticated users may have difficulty performing a complex risk assessment. The research paper "A computer protocol to predict myocardial infarction in emergency department patients with chest pain", published in the New England Journal of Medicine, Mar. 31, 1988, Vol 318, pages 797-803, presents a risk assessment that can be used by emergency room medical personnel for triage of patients with symptoms of chest pain. The analysis and procedure is presented without any suggestion for a means by which it may be operationally used in the emergency room. The complexity of the decision rule, possibly requiring the answering of up to 8 questions, and the severity of the consequences should a mistake occur, mandate a careful approach to the means by which the rule is implemented. The present invention can be an important element in standard operation procedure by which this rule is applied in the emergency room.